Globus Medical [GMED] — Trade Construction & Liquidity

Analysis date: 2026-07-29 · Spot $80.64 (Alpaca IEX close, 2026-07-28) This document constructs no position and issues no verdict. It scores the Liquidity Criteria, states what vehicles are and are not fillable, and specifies the entry-timing and invalidation mechanics a book would need.

1. Liquidity Criteria — BINDING

1.1 Common stock — PASS

The ADV figure is a partial tape and is not the consolidated number. IEX represents a low-single-digit share of US consolidated volume; the true consolidated ADV for a $10.9bn NYSE-listed S&P constituent is materially higher, but it is not obtainable from this data source and no consolidated figure is asserted here. On the partial tape alone, a $10m position is roughly one day of IEX-printed volume — comfortably fillable on the consolidated tape over one to two sessions.

1.2 Options — FAIL for any dated structure

criteria.md: "Any proposed options structure requires the actual chain pulled first — open interest and quoted size for the specific strikes and expiry... A vehicle that cannot be filled is not a vehicle."

The full chain was pulled from Alpaca (paper-api.alpaca.markets/v2/options/contracts, all expiries 2026-08-01 → 2028-01-31), with quotes and Greeks from the snapshots endpoint.

There is no listed expiry beyond March 2027. The March 2027 chain — the only expiry that spans a 12-month horizon — carries 13 contracts of open interest across 48 listed strikes. This is the HCA failure mode named verbatim in criteria.md ("the maximum open interest across an entire March-2027 chain was 18 contracts"). GMED is worse.

Quoted spreads on the December 2026 calls, which is the deepest expiry with any duration:

A 36–99% bid-ask spread means a defined-risk call spread pays roughly half its maximum payoff to the market maker on entry, and the same again to exit. The quoted sizes (30–90 contracts) are auto-quotes at a spread nobody is trading; open interest of 3–19 contracts is the evidence that they are not being hit.

The September 2026 chain is marginally better (OI 419 at $90, 258 at $85, 251 at $95) but expires in 51 days — before Q3 2026 results, and far short of any thesis horizon. Spreads there are 40–80% of mid.

Conclusion: common stock is the only investable vehicle in this name. No options structure is proposed, because none can be filled at a price that leaves the thesis intact. This is a finding, not an omission.

2. Entry timing — the Momentum Criteria applied

MEASURED. Governs when, never whether.

The signals disagree, and the disagreement is informative. Twelve-month momentum is strong and cross-sectionally top-quintile; six-month and three-month momentum are negative, and the stock is below its 200-day. The tape has been de-rating since spring while the fundamentals accelerated — organic growth went +7.0% → +10.6% → +13.2% over exactly the period in which the stock fell 11%.

That gap is either the opportunity or the warning. It resolves on a date: Q2 2026 results, expected ~6 August 2026 (GMED reported Q2 2025 on 7 August 2025).

Timing implication for a book that has decided to own it: the reclaim of the 200-day at $83.61 is the cleanest technical confirmation available, and it sits 3.7% above spot — i.e. a book can wait for it cheaply. Entering ahead of Q2 results buys the print; entering after it buys confirmation at a worse price if the print is good. Neither is a selection question.

3. Invalidation — what would falsify the analysis

These are stated as levels and as facts, so a book can wire them to a monitor.

4. Position mechanics, if a book chooses to own it

Specified, not recommended.

• Vehicle: common stock only. See §1.2.
• Sizing input — inverse volatility. 252-day realised vol is 45.7%, which is high for large-cap medtech (Stryker and Edwards run 20–25%). Under the book's inverse-volatility convention this name sizes down roughly 2x versus a 23%-vol medtech peer for the same risk contribution. That is the active protection against the Downside Criteria's fat left tail, per criteria.md.
• Correlation note for the book's concentration limits: sub-sector tag LC MedTech. The nearest existing coverage names by sub-sector and end-market are SYK, EW and ISRG. GMED's specific end-market (spine and musculoskeletal implants) does not overlap those directly, but the hospital-capital-budget and elective-procedure-volume factors do. The book, not this memo, decides whether that is one exposure or four.
• Catalyst density is high and near. Q2 2026 results (~6 Aug), Q3 (~early Nov), FY2026 results + FY2027 guidance (~late Feb 2027). Three dated resolution points inside twelve months, which is unusually favourable for a thesis whose central uncertainty is a single observable number.

5. Liquidity Criteria — result