Globus Medical [GMED] — Catalyst Calendar
Analysis date: 2026-07-29 · Catalyst Criteria type: MEASURED — dated events that would confirm or refute the Valuation Criteria implied path. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder; these govern monitoring.
Rule applied throughout: no date is asserted unless it is either (a) disclosed in a filing, or (b) derived from the company's own reporting pattern and explicitly labelled as an estimate. Nothing here is invented.
1. Confirmed dates (filed)
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Q1 2026 results; FY2026 revenue guidance reaffirmed at $3.18–3.22bn; non-GAAP EPS guidance raised to $4.70–4.80 from $4.40–4.50 | 8-K, accession 0001628280-26-032164 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026 Annual Meeting; 2021 Equity Incentive Plan amendment approved (+1,000,000 shares, to 12,000,000) | 8-K, accession 0001628280-26-040784 |
No 8-K has been filed since 2026-06-03. As of the analysis date, Q1 2026 is the most recent reported quarter.
2. Estimated dates (derived from the company's own reporting pattern — labelled)
GMED's reporting cadence over the last eight quarters: Q1 → early May; Q2 → early August; Q3 → early November; FY → late February. Prior-year actuals: Q2 2025 reported 2025-08-07; Q3 2025 2025-11-06; FY2025 2026-02-24; Q1 2026 2026-05-07.
| Estimated date | Event | Why it matters | What would confirm / refute |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~2026-08-06 (est.) | Q2 2026 results | The single most decisive event in the file. Q1'26 base-business growth was +13.2% against a −1.4% comp. Q2'25 base was +3.3% — still an easy comp, so a fifth consecutive acceleration is the low bar and a stall here is severe. | Confirms: base-business YoY ≥ +12%, ET growth positive, FY2026 guide raised or reaffirmed. Refutes: base-business YoY < +8%; any revenue guidance cut. |
| ~2026-11-05 (est.) | Q3 2026 results | The first genuinely hard comp: Q3'25 base was +7.0%, and Q4'25 was +10.6%. Sustaining double-digit growth against a +7% comp is the test of whether this is share gain or rebound. | Confirms: base-business YoY ≥ +10% on a +7.0% comp. Refutes: deceleration below +8%, which would put the two-year stack back at ~5%. |
| ~2027-01-08 (est.) | Preliminary FY2026 revenue / JPM Healthcare Conference pre-announcement | GMED has pre-announced in early January in each of 2024 (Jan 10), 2025 (Jan 8) and 2026 (Jan 7). The pre-announcement typically carries preliminary revenue and initial next-year framing. | First look at FY2027 growth expectations. |
| ~2027-02-24 (est.) | FY2026 results and initial FY2027 guidance | The largest single re-rating or de-rating event in the 12-month window. This is management's first quantitative statement about the post-rebound organic growth rate — the exact number the entire disagreement with the reference book turns on. | Confirms: FY2027 revenue guidance implying ≥ +9% organic. Refutes: guidance implying ≤ +6% organic, which validates the bear case directly. |
3. Undated but live — events to monitor without a calendar entry
| Event | Status | Why it is on the list |
|---|---|---|
| Nevro integration exit rate | Ongoing | Nevro TTM revenue is $376.3m, −7.9% vs its last standalone year ($408.5m). Q1'26 was $82.7m. Every $10m of quarterly swing is ~1.3pp of group growth. Reported quarterly inside the "base business excluding Nevro" reconciliation table in each 8-K Ex-99.1. |
| Enabling Technologies placement cycle | Inflecting | ET revenue: FY2024 $154.0m → FY2025 $141.0m (−8.4%), then Q4'25 +19% and Q1'26 +21.1%. GMED does not disclose unit placements, so the only observable is the revenue line in the Note 4 disaggregation. A third consecutive ~+20% quarter confirms the capital cycle turned. |
| Pimenta litigation | Accrued, unresolved | $43.1m accrued in Q3 2025; FY2025 provision for litigation $37.7m vs $0.3m in FY2024. Ultimate exposure is not disclosed and no figure is estimated here. Described in FY2025 10-K Note 15. |
| Nevro measurement-period adjustments | Open until 2026-04-03 | ASC 805 allows twelve months from the 2025-04-03 acquisition date to finalise the purchase price allocation. The preliminary allocation already moved once (bargain purchase gain $110.6m → $117.7m via $7.1m of measurement-period adjustments). The measurement period has now closed; the FY2026 10-K will carry the final allocation. |
| "Closed-loop surgical intelligence ecosystem" | Named, undated | First appears in the Q4 2025 release and repeated in Q1 2026 (mention-frequency §5 of the Research doc: first-ever mentions, both quarters). No launch date, no product name and no revenue contribution has been disclosed. It is recorded here as an emerging management priority with no dated event attached — which per references/mention-frequency.md is itself the catalyst to go find. |
| Trauma / joint reconstruction contribution | Newly disclosed, unquantified | Both named as MD&A contributors from Q2 2025 onward, first time in the company's disclosure history within the ten-quarter window examined. No franchise revenue is broken out. |
4. Catalyst density assessment
Three dated resolution points inside twelve months (Aug 2026, Nov 2026, Feb 2027), each of which reports the single number the thesis depends on — base-business revenue growth excluding Nevro — as a company-disclosed line item in a reconciliation table.
That is an unusually clean monitoring setup: the disagreement between this analysis and the reference book's short thesis is not about method, valuation or accounting. It is about one number, and that number is printed by the company every quarter.
The first print lands in roughly one week.